With less than two weeks to go until the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that the presidential election remains a statistical dead end both nationally and in battleground states, unchanged from the August survey, although some notable movements between key groups have taken place.

Nationally, former President Donald Trump has a 48%-46% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error and unchanged from August. In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll.

The survey was conducted from October 15 to 19 and had a total sample of 1,000 voters across the country. The national sample included 186 voters from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were interviewed in those states, for a total sample of 586 from battleground states.

Both nationally and on the battlefield, economic issues remain the top concern for voters. Trump leads among voters who prioritize inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class. With a margin of 42% to 24%, voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins, with 29% saying their financial position will not change regardless of who is elected. Voters who say inflation, the cost of living and the economy in general are the most important issues give Trump a 13-point lead. Inflation has remained the main issue throughout the election cycle.

“While the data shows that inflation has theoretically declined, over the course of the last three quarters it has become more important in people’s minds, not less important,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the research. .

The survey also found that Trump has a 35-point lead among voters most concerned about immigration, and a 19-point lead on crime and safety.

Harris has the lead on a number of second-line issues, areas of great importance that lie beneath the economy. They include a 31-point Harris advantage among voters most concerned about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care and 60 points on climate change.

The question for Harris is whether the combined support on these smaller issues will be enough to overcome her deficits on the big economic issues. The two candidates are statistically tied on who can best bring positive change to the nation.

Character issues appear to be keeping the race close. Harris gained a 13-point lead when respondents were asked who has the better mental and physical health to be president. She leads Trump by 10 points when it comes to who is more honest and trustworthy. Still, both numbers show an improvement for Trump compared to an NBC News poll from September.

And Trump has also improved his favorable ratings. His net favorable rating of -13 points (positive minus negative) from August has improved to -6 nationally. Opinions about Harris are only slightly less negative at -10, compared to -8 in August. (She had risen to +3 in the NBC poll in September, but now appears to have given up her post-convention gains.) Harris is doing better in the battleground states with a net favorability rating of -5, equal to Trump’s.

The survey shows that the American electorate is divided along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some movement beneath the surface. The gender gap remains the most glaring gap, but Trump’s net +17 support among men is greater than Vice President Harris’s +12 among women. Harris maintains a large 27-point lead among voters of color, but lost 10 points compared to August. She has a 38-point lead among voters of color in battleground states. Compared to August, Trump improved his numbers among less educated and lower-income voters, while Harris is doing better among middle-class and wealthier voters.

“Trump’s advantage is that he wins more men than he loses women,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who served as the Republican pollster for the study. “It’s a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is large, and it’s just not as strong for Harris among younger women, and especially older women.”

Harris has an 8-point lead nationally among women over 50, but is even in the battleground states with Trump.

Although the officially measured inflation rate has fallen sharply, the CNBC survey shows that Americans just aren’t feeling it. Three-quarters of the public believe prices are still rising, while a majority of 45% say they are rising faster than before. Only 16% say prices have stabilized and only 6% see them falling; only 7% see their income rising faster than inflation, 27% say they are keeping pace with inflation and 63% say they are losing ground. At the same time, only 26% say the economy is excellent or good, while 73% say the answers are fair or poor, a modest improvement from August.

Still, 37% of the public believe the economy will improve in the coming year, the highest level in more than three years, an increase that typically occurs around election time and may be more related to American views on the outcome of the election than to their views. on the economy.

You can view the full research results here.