The outcome of Tuesday’s sharp US election is unlikely to have much impact on tepid ties between Washington and Ankara, although presidential chemistry could help, experts say.

The close relationship of the 1990s, when the United States and Turkey saw each other as indispensable allies, is long gone.

After a long period of soul-searching and crises, the two NATO allies have found themselves in an uneasy but formal alliance, agreeing to disagree on many issues while keeping dialogue open.

“Today it seems that both have decided to agree on some issues, disagree on others and look for areas of cooperation,” Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told AFP.

Such areas include Africa “where Turkey has built influence, and Islamic Eurasia, where Turkey has historical influence, where the two could work together,” he said.

But many problems have soured the ties.

In 2019, Washington removed Ankara from its F-35 fighter jet program in retaliation for Turkey’s decision to purchase an advanced Russian missile defense system.

Turkey has long harbored resentment over Washington’s alliance with a Kurdish militia in its fight against Islamic State insurgents in Syria.

And Ankara’s binary foreign policy choices have infuriated Washington, particularly its ties with Russia and China and its refusal to join Western sanctions on Moscow.

– A bridge too far? –

In a Brookings commentary, Rich Outzen said that U.S.-Turkish ties had always had problems, but now there was a sense that matters were too complicated to resolve.

“A view has gained traction in Washington that centers on the premise that U.S.-Turkey tensions may not be worth resolving,” he wrote.

“Under this view, Washington has little to gain from addressing Turkish concerns, Ankara cannot or will not transact in good faith, or it has taken positions so incompatible with U.S. and Western interests that there is no point in to try.”

Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s reluctance to talk to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not helped.

Biden fell from favor when he called Erdogan “an autocrat” in a New York Times interview in 2020 before he was elected.

During his time in office, Biden never visited Turkey or received Erdogan.

A White House meeting scheduled for May was postponed.

The situation calmed down when Ankara lifted its veto on Sweden’s accession to NATO, while Washington approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in January.

But that momentum has stalled as the rift between Erdogan and Biden over Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war continues to widen.

Turkish officials refuse to say who they would prefer to win.

But some experts suggest that Donald Trump, who was in power in 2016-2020, could be better, given the Republican candidate’s personal relationship with Erdogan.

-‘No positive memories’-

From a broader perspective, some believe it would be “more beneficial” for Turkey if Democrats remained in power in the United States, foreign policy analyst Serkan Demirtas said.

“Proponents of a Kamala Harris-led government argue that the Trump era has left no positive memories in Turkish-American relations,” he told AFP.

“The deep crises and Trump’s attacks on the Turkish economy have put Ankara in a very difficult situation.”

In 2018, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Turkey’s justice and interior ministers over the detention of an American pastor, sending the Turkish lira plummeting to an all-time low.

And Trump’s support for Israel could spell trouble as the Middle East teeters on the brink of full-scale conflict.

“A possible Trump victory is considered risky for Ankara, amid the growing risk of conflict between Israel and Iran,” Demirtas said.

In an interview published in the Hurriyet newspaper on Sunday, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the outcome of the US vote could worsen regional tensions.

“Depending on the US election outcome, Netanyahu’s expansionist strategy in the region may increase,” he said, apparently referring to a Trump victory.

When the billionaire businessman was in power, he built a personal relationship with Erdogan, who visited the White House in 2017 and 2019.

Trump agreed to visit in 2018 but never made it.

While “presidential chemistry” – or lack thereof – would likely affect future ties, it was unlikely to change the modalities of the relationship, Cagaptay said.

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