Tropical Storm Sara could form within days and hit Florida, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and meteorologists warn.

“The showers and thunderstorms continue along with a broad area of ​​low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days as the system slowly moves westward the west is moving. Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said in its latest update on Wednesday morning.

The center said the chances of Sara forming in the next seven days were high: 90 percent. From formation, the system will likely move northeastward early next week.

In a social media post, Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK News in Southwest Florida, said early projection models for Sara had a “less than ideal” outlook for Florida.

Sharing a spaghetti model chart of Sara’s possible progress – which one Newsweek recorded above – Devitt said: “Again, it hasn’t formed yet and things could change. Look for consistency and trends. The timing would be the middle of next week if it impacts Florida.”

The spaghetti model shared by Devitt shows the different paths the storm could take, all predicting that the storm could move into the Gulf and head toward Florida. The black line is the average of the average and shows the storm hitting offshore.

A CMC model (pink line) projects the storm making landfall near Gasparilla Sound-Charlotte Harbor.

In terms of the storm’s strength, Devitt explained that the storm had the potential to become a Category 3 hurricane (wind speeds of 110 to 120 miles per hour) in the Caribbean, but that it was too early to tell. assess which category the storm would fall into. Golf.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, meaning November hurricanes are rare but not impossible.

Sara quickly follows Hurricane Rafael, the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico since Kate in 1985.

Rafael made landfall in Cuba last week as a Category 3 storm, knocking out the power grid and destroying homes. It did not make landfall in the US

Since 1850, there have only been three hurricanes that have made landfall in the US in November.

The most recent of these was Hurricane Nicole in 2022, which hit Florida with winds of 75 miles per hour, causing five deaths and more than $1 billion in damage.

The other two November hurricanes, Yankee in 1935 and Kate in 1985, were Category 2 storms with winds of 100 miles per hour.

The high late-season storm activity this year is due to unusually high water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin. These elevated temperatures help fuel the energy of tropical cyclones.