RALEIGH, NC – As Hurricane Francine continues to batter the Tennessee Valley with rain, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring an old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast that could be the focus of the season’s next tropical disturbance.

The National Hurricane Center has forecast a moderate chance of development in the area over the next week, but tropical cyclone or not, the Carolinas can expect rainy and sometimes stormy conditions through the weekend and the first half of the workweek.

Conditions are not favorable for rapid development, but slow organization is possible as the disturbance moves north and west, back toward the coastline.

---

Due to continued landward flow, impacts to the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will not differ regardless of whether the system develops into a cyclone.

Forecast models show a widespread band of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with locally heavier amounts possible, especially east of Interstate 95. This includes the coastal communities of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Wilmington and Morehead City, North Carolina.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has warned the Carolina coast of possible flooding on Monday.

Inland cities such as Raleigh, Charlotte and even Richmond, Virginia, are expected to see more modest rainfall.

WATCH: HURRICANE ERNESTO’S SWELLING CAUSES NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE TO FALL INTO THE OCEAN

---

Rough seas can lead to rip currents and beach erosion

All this movement in the ocean creates rough waves, an increased risk of rip currents and the potential for additional coastal erosion.

The coastline around the Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia is very susceptible to rough seas, as evidenced by the waves produced by Hurricane Ernesto that were more than 1,000 miles away.

Waves from the Category 2 hurricane caused flooding along North Carolina Highway 12, the main road through the islands. At least one abandoned home collapsed into the ocean.

Following the collapse, parts of Cape Hatteras National Seashore were off-limits to swimmers due to concerns about debris in the water.

So far, authorities have given no indication that the waves will exceed those of Ernesto or that more homes will be destroyed. However, the local National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, has issued several warnings to beachgoers and boaters, warning of the severe conditions.

WHEN WILL THE LAST HURRICANE HIT THE AMERICAN COAST?

What else is being watched in the tropics?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, the NHC is monitoring two objects, but neither poses a significant threat to land.

The first area is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms known as Invest 94L. An invest is simply the naming convention that meteorologists use to identify an area they are monitoring for possible tropical development. Invest 94L is approaching the northern Leeward Islands and will increase shower activity, but the combination of shear and dry air is expected to limit the organization of the system.

A second area the NHC is monitoring is located nearly halfway between the Caribbean Sea and Africa and is known as Tropical Storm Gordon. The storm is expected to remain in the open Atlantic Ocean for the life of the system and will not threaten any land masses.

---

Normally, the seventh storm system in the Atlantic basin forms around September 3. This means that 2024 will be behind the average season in terms of the number of named storms.

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, September 10 is the date on which the most hurricanes and tropical storms are known to occur.

(FOX Weather)