MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) – The forecast for the weekend will not be a wash out. Expect increasing cloudiness into the weekend with isolated showers each day. We will continue to monitor the chance for a coastal low developing offshore this weekend. A developing low close enough to the Grand Strand will increase the chance for rain late this weekend and into early next week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, “a non-tropical low pressure area could develop along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Some subtropical or tropical development is possible early next week as the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast” generally toward the vicinity of the Carolinas.

High pressure over New England will block the system from turning out to sea and instead will force it to head toward the coast of the Carolinas. The exact path is uncertain at this time, but will determine how much rain and wind our area sees through early next week.

Strong upper-level winds, along with dry, cool air nearby, will help prevent the system from becoming too strong, and a strong tropical storm or hurricane is highly unlikely. New data this morning has kept development to a minimum or too far north to bring the heaviest rainfall to the Grand Strand. Of course, this is just one set of data, and we will continue to look for trends and patterns throughout the weekend.

Where exactly this low pressure area develops and/or does not develop will determine how much rain we will see on Sunday-Tuesday.

Ahead of the system, expect today to be cloudy with isolated showers. Most of the rain on Friday will be in the first half of the day. Temperatures will be in the low 80s. We will continue to see a few showers into the evening hours, but expect less coverage for anyone heading to high school football games tonight.

Humidity will steadily increase across the region on Saturday, resulting in an increased chance of rain and the risk of thunderstorms. With more clouds and rain, temperatures will remain low, reaching the upper 70s to near 80.

We are keeping the risk of scattered showers for Saturday and Sunday, with a lower chance of rain in the forecast compared to yesterday. Based on the latest trends, if we were to see a day that looks more like a soaking rain, it would be Sunday or Monday. Of course, this is still very much dependent on the track of the developing low. A track that goes too far east or north would mean less rain in our area.

Either way, strong wind gusts are likely, especially near the beaches, where gusts could reach up to 48 km/h.

Models continue to disagree on where the heaviest rain will fall. It could potentially shift to North Carolina or as far south as the Low Country. The official First Alert forecast currently calls for 2 to 4 inches of rain near the beaches with amounts of 1 to 2 inches inland.

The best chance for the heaviest rainfall will be associated with the developing low pressure. Where exactly that is, remains the uncertain part of this forecast.

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