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Trump and Harris were largely tied in the Michigan, Wisconsin: NYT/Siena College poll
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Trump and Harris were largely tied in the Michigan, Wisconsin: NYT/Siena College poll

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Former President Trump has narrowed Vice President Kamala Harris’ slim lead in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, new New York Times/Siena College polling shows.

Among likely voters in Michigan, Harris received 48% support, while Trump received 47%, putting the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in a crucial tie, well within the poll’s margin of error. Harris scored 49% among likely voters in Wisconsin, while Trump received 47% support in the same state where polls tend to overestimate support for Democrats, the Times said.

The Times pointed to the economy, which remains the most important issue for voters, as Trump’s strength on the economic front helps him narrow Harris’ slim lead in the two northern battlegrounds.

The new poll is in stark contrast to the New York Times/Siena College survey from August, which found Harris leading Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46% among likely voters, including in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That poll was the first conducted as the race reshaped, with Harris becoming the presidential nominee following President Biden’s exit from the election in July.

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Trump in Wisconsin

Former President Donald Trump addresses attendees during a campaign rally at the Prairie Du Chien Area Arts Center on September 28, 2024 in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Now, with less than 40 days until the Nov. 5 election, New York Times/Siena College polls put Harris nine percentage points ahead of Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be crucial in the Electoral College. The Times says Harris could get exactly 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House if she picks up that district — as the vice president also wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trump emerges victorious in Sun Belt battleground states.

Although Ohio is not in the battleground state category for the presidential race, it is home to one of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests between Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown and GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. New York Times/Siena College polls show Trump leading Harris by six points in Ohio, while Brown is four points ahead of Moreno.

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Harris in Michigan

Vice President Kamala Harris poses during the ‘Unite for America’ livestream rally in Farmington Hills, Michigan, on September 19, 2024. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Democrats have held a months-long lead in Wisconsin’s presidential primary, which has been decided by less than a percentage point in four of the last six elections, including the 2020 race, the Times notes. Meanwhile, Biden led Michigan by three points in 2020, while Trump won that Wolverine State by three-tenths of a point in 2016.

Abortion was considered the second most important issue among voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.

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The new poll found that 18% of voters in the two states named abortion as their top issue, noting an increase since May, when 13% of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin identified it as their defining cause. On abortion, Harris leads Trump by 20 points in Michigan, but now only by 13 points in Wisconsin. Harris held a 22-point lead over Trump on the abortion issue in the Badger State in August.