Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Although Orolbai does not use as high a pace as Carlos Diego Ferreira, he has fourteen years of youth at CDF and is a sharper striker with his piston of a straight left flank. The Kyrgyz wrestling has the potential to get him ranked in the future, but for now he is 2-0 in the UFC and seems virtually untouchable to unranked fighters.

Orolbai’s only professional loss came against an undefeated Russian prospect, and Rebecki has shown enough holes in his game that I’m confident the 26-year-old will get the job done. Submission gives the best odds for his method of victory, and against a fighter with gas tank issues I will always throw a half bet on a final round finish.

Orolbai by Sub @ +500, Orolbai in r3 @ +900 (.5u), most sig attacks -105

Abusipuyan Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira: Abus Magomedov didn’t ask to be placed in a main event in his second UFC fight (full analysis here), but losing that fight to Sean Strickland and then the subsequent loss to now top-ranked fighter Caio Borralho has led to a sharp decline in its shares.

He may not be contender material, but he’s still significantly better than ‘Hulk’ Ferreira all around. Brunno has never fought longer than six minutes and eight seconds as a professional, so no one should have any trouble guessing my prop bets for this fight.

Abus ML @ -142, Abus in r2 @ +550 (.75u), in r3 @ +725 (.5u)

Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo: Farid Basharat is a -800 favorite here, a position in which his brother recently lost. However, Farid is the more talented Bash brother, and while he will definitely find success wrestling Hugo, he is also the much better striker.

Barring an early finish, which he only has one finish in the UFC, this should happen easily; he averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute and over 40 significant strikes per fight. At that rate, he can have five full minutes of control time with no strikes and still hit easily

Farid over 39.5 sig attacks @ -125 (2h)

Chris Barnett vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu: This fight is basically a meme, but Nzechukwu is a sad finisher because of how physically imposing he is and Barnett hasn’t lost by the finish in the UFC yet. I’m expecting a lukewarm kickboxing match for the most part, I’m just concerned about Barnett’s key strike choices losing if Kennedy decides to wrestle from the start, where he’ll likely have success. Dedication of half a unit upon submission.

Barnett o20.5 sig hits @ -150

Nzechukwu by Sub @ +500 (.5u), over 0.5 takedowns @ +120

Carlos Leal vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov: My full review of the UFC 308 prelim card opener can be found here, but essentially I think Leal is underrated here and Rinat is still overrated. I expect a close split decision with Leal having a good chance of winning. Although the split decision bets are long odds, I am placing a full unit on each of these bets on this card.

Leal ML @ +190, o44.5 Sig Strikes @ -115

The fight goes to Split Decision @ +375

Fakhretdinov u3.5 takedowns