There is still a chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will hit Florida before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

As of Tuesday evening, no named storms were raging in the Atlantic Ocean, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring a system with a high risk of developing in the Caribbean. If the storm develops later this week, it will become Tropical Storm Sara, the 18th named storm of the season.

In late October, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted one to three additional named storms during the month of November. So far, two have formed: Tropical Storm Patty and Hurricane Rafael. Both storms largely avoided the US except for some indirect impacts, but AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Newsweek Should Tropical Storm Sara form, atmospheric conditions could steer the storm towards South Florida.

“I’m increasingly concerned that we’re likely to see a hurricane in the western Caribbean this weekend, possibly even a powerful one,” DaSilva said.

Although it is still too early for an official track, it is possible that the storm will turn north and then focus on Florida. If the storm follows that path, DaSilva said it will likely make landfall between Nov. 19 and 22.

Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are above average for this time of year, which could contribute to storm development.

DaSilva said a large high-pressure area in the southeastern U.S. will be the “key driver” for where the developing storm will go. If high pressure strengthens, it will push the storm west toward the Yucatan and Mexico, where it will have little impact on the US.

However, DaSilva is concerned that the high pressure will weaken, allowing the storm to turn toward the Florida coast. If that happens, the area with the greatest risk impact will be South Florida.

“If it enters the U.S. it won’t be at peak intensity, but that doesn’t mean the impacts couldn’t be significant depending on the strength of the storm,” DaSilva said, adding that high winds and flooding on the coast and very heavy rainfall would be possible.

As of Tuesday evening, the system in the western Caribbean had a 60 percent chance of strengthening into Sara in the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance of doing so in the next seven days.

“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of ​​low pressure,” the NHC said of the developing system.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. After that, further development is likely as the disturbance meanders across the western Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward early next week.”