The American university professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, known for his perfect election predictions, maintained his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming elections. Lichtman, who originally made this prediction on September 5, stated that nothing has changed to change his prediction.

During a livestream on Tuesday, Lichtman expressed concern about the future of the country and not about the election polls. “Of course I’m worried. Not because of the polls, but mainly because I worry about the future of this country,” Lichtman said.

“I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “This year I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

Using his ‘Keys to the White House’ analysis, Lichtman evaluates 13 specific categories. According to his analysis, Harris has a lead in eight of the 13 categories, compared to President Donald Trump’s three. He acknowledged the possibility that he was wrong, but called it unlikely. “But it is always possible that something so cataclysmic and unprecedented could change the pattern of history.”

For more than 42 years, Lichtman has predicted election results with great accuracy. He emphasized that his system, based on objective and quantitative indicators, has been consistently reliable. “My predictions have stood the test of time, my indicators have always been right,” he said.

Lichtman, a registered Democrat, recently canceled his subscription to the Washington Post after the newspaper decided not to endorse a candidate. He noted that this year’s election anxiety was unprecedented and drew comparisons to previous elections. “There is more election anxiety this year than I have ever seen and I go back to Kennedy-Nixon,” he noted. Lichtman also revealed that he has faced unprecedented hostility in predicting Harris’ victory. “I have never experienced anything close to the hate that has been directed at me this time,” he told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo. “I am receiving feedback that is vulgar, violent and threatening, and even beyond that, my family’s safety has been compromised.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Allan Lichtman is a renowned political historian and election forecaster, best known for his ‘Keys to the White House’ forecasting model. Born in 1947, Lichtman is currently a Distinguished Professor at American University in Washington, DC, where he has taught for many years. He obtained a Ph.D. in Modern American History and Quantitative Methods from Harvard University.

Lichtman’s forecasting system, developed in 1981 with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, assesses thirteen “keys” to determine the outcome of the US presidential election. Each key is a true-or-false statement regarding the incumbent’s strength and performance. If six or more statements are false, the challenging side is likely to win; if five or fewer are false, the incumbent is predicted to win. This model has correctly predicted the popular vote outcome in every presidential election since 1984, with the exception of the controversial 2000 election, where George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

What are the 13 keys to the White House?

• Incumbent party’s mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House than after the previous midterm (false).
• No serious contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination (true).
• Incumbent President: The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president (False).
• No Third Party Challenge: There is no significant third party challenger (true).
• Strong Short-Term Economy: The short-term economy is strong (true).
• Strong long-term economy: Long-term economic growth has been as good as in the past two terms (true).
• Major policy change: The incumbent party has made major changes in national policy (True).
• Social unrest: There is no ongoing social unrest (true).
• No scandals: The government is not tainted by scandals (true).
• No major foreign/military failure: The government is not suffering any major foreign or military failure (Leans False).
• Major foreign/military success: The government achieves a major foreign or military success (Leans True).
• Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or a national hero (false).
• Challenger Charisma: The challenging party’s candidate is not charismatic or a national hero (true).

According to Lichtman, they are more likely to retain the White House if at least eight of these keys favor the incumbent. For the 2024 election cycle, Lichtman’s analysis indicates that there are at least eight factors in the Democratic Party’s favor, making Vice President Kamala Harris, if she runs, the projected winner under this model.