Looking at the formation in the daily chart, Bitcoin bulls are struggling with momentum. Despite the expansion on August 8, which reversed the losses of August 5, buyers have not followed through, meaning traders are waiting for more confirmation before diving in.

The lack of activity in recent trading days means that prices are in a bull flag and are moving within the bull bar of August 8. Although buyers are optimistic, a dull range is expected, especially when looking at the historical performance after the Halving.

CryQuant CEO: Bitcoin Likely to Surge in Q4 2024

Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, is moving to X. notes that prices tend to consolidate when the grid half events occur. This sideways movement usually lasts most of the year before prices shoot up in the last quarter when whales intervene.

In the last bull cycle, when Bitcoin halved its network rewards in 2020, prices moved sideways and rose only a few inches in the last quarter of the year. If we compare the current price action with what happened then, it is very likely that Bitcoin will recover. Ju said that this optimistic outlook is because “whales will not let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.”

Analysts consider Bitcoin Halving a bullish event, given how prices have moved. When the network halves miner rewards, the coin becomes deflationary.

Half of the tokens will find their way into the circulating supply. Prices will increase if demand remains the same (or increases).

Impact of spot ETFs, mining liquidation and interest rate cuts

The expected supply crunch following the April 20 Halving is the reason most analysts still believe the coin will break all records. This confidence comes after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. Since then, leading issuers including Fidelity and BlackRock have purchased billions of dollars worth of BTC.

In addition to institutional demand for BTC, miners have reduced their liquidation. The hash rate dropped after weak miners sold billions of coins in JuneHowever, the hash rate has improved in recent weeks, indicating renewed confidence from miners who have purchased new equipment to remain competitive despite the lower rewards.

In September, the United States Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates. With inflation falling and the central bank easing, investors can consider BTC as a hedge against inflation. This will be beneficial for bulls, who can build momentum and break record highs.

Main image from Canva, chart from TradingView