Thanks to the nflSnelR project and NFL NextGen Stats for current sources of data.

For those new to this, each week I will be posting key QB stats to assess how well the upcoming opponent’s QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling affect these numbers, but they are primarily QB measurements. I will likely tweak the charts throughout the season. The commentary will be brief, but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click on charts to enlarge)

DASHBOARD

The last article I wrote about an opposing QB was CJ Stroud in week 18 of last year, so I think we’ve come full circle. Not much has changed since my last analysis, but I’ll update the numbers anyway.

arsr,
edp,
opd,
similar %,
us%,
pr%,
ttt,
point,
yes/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
jacket,
jacoe,
hurrah,
scr%,
t%,
sck%,
aa%,
aah,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
Unpleasant%,
epa/d,
psr

• The Texans rushing is terrible, but they are a run first team that doesn’t use much shotgun (26th edp, 29th arsr, 28th sg%). I think they pass more this year (just guessing).
• Last year, Stroud faced opponents who defended harder than average (10th best percentage), resulting in him getting a zone look on 78% of his snaps (5th best percentage).
• He keeps the ball for a long time, even though he is not often under pressure (4th ttt, 19th pr%).
• Stroud has plenty of time to throw and tries to make long passes (2nd adot, 1st ay/c).
• His accuracy is just average (19th cpoe), but his receivers are getting exceptional yac (9th yac, 6th yacoe). That’s very unusual with such long completions and longer time to throw. I think he’ll regress in YAC this year.
• He responded to pressure by taking more sacks than scrambles (9th sck%, 17th scr%). That’s a weakness for a mobile QB.
• Still, he hasn’t faced much pressure, so those abandoned attempts don’t have much of an impact on his efficiency per dropback and he has the third-most net yards per dropback.
• He’s good at throwing for first downs and TDs and avoiding turnovers, which is the trinity of a good QB (4th 1st%, 10th TD rate, 29th 1%).

He finished with the 7th best overall efficiency (7th epa/d), but his 15th-ranked Passing Success Rate implies that a few high EPA events (e.g. explosive passes) skewed his numbers. Removing 20+ yard attempts from the data drops his efficiency to 15th.

He’s in the upper right quadrant, where you want your QB, but I think he’ll regress a little bit this year and move more toward the middle.

HOW GOOD?

He’s had a lot of highs and lows, but overall he’s been good, especially in that last game against the… oh yeah.

HOW FAR?

He consistently throws the ball far.

TO WHOM?

It will be interesting to see Tank Dell this year. I expect him to close the gap on Nico Collins.

Upper right quadrant = receiver’s goodness.

HOW ACCURATE?

One of his weaknesses is accuracy. On passes between 6 and 15 yards, he has a below average completion rate. But on passes of 20+ yards, he has been great. That is not a picture of an accurate QB who gets deep. That is a not so accurate QB who gets lucky with a few deep passes.

HOW FAST?

Even if you adjust the depth of the passing, Stroud holds the ball for a long time. I don’t think that will do him any good.

WHERE TO?

Those deep passes are the reason why his overall efficiency was so good. Take that away and he’s just OK.

. . . Can do we take that away?