There’s a juicy Conference USA matchup on the schedule tonight as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel to Huntsville, Texas to take on the Sam Houston.

My predictions from Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston expect the Hilltoppers’ conference title to fall again, with these college football picks siding with the short-lived home favorite before kickoff at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, October 16.

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction and best bet

My best choice
Moneyline Sam Houston (-130 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

A more reckless person would target Sam Houston at -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings), but increasingly in college football, -1 and -2 are numbers with some significance in betting terms. Coaches are more attuned to analytics, such as going for two when a 14-point deficit is reduced by a touchdown. And honestly, mistakes happen often in lower-tier FBS football on Wednesday nights. Such an error could lead to a disjointed 28-27 score.

This moneyline avoids those concerns.

But on the broader point of backing the Bearkats, consider the reality that Western Kentucky is a bit overrated thanks to UTEP’s blowout last Thursday. Of the Hilltoppers’ 44 points, 17 came on short fields. While Western Kentucky deserves credit for creating these opportunities, they are still not inherently replicable.

Watching current SP+ ratingsUTEP has the No. 132 offense in the country. Note that there are 134 teams at the FBS level, hence the name of the Covers college football podcast, “College Football 134.” Ranking No. 132 is, in a word, bad.

Sam Houston isn’t much better, but at No. 95 the Bearkats indicate mild competence. They won’t give the Hilltoppers that many chances.

Sam Houston should dictate the terms of this game step by step, improving in both offensive and defensive success rates, as well as on late downs on both sides of the ball. In fact, that last statistic puts the Bearkats in the top third of the country in both offensive and defensive success rate, ranking third and fourth.

Anyone supporting Western Kentucky here is doing so almost entirely on a high-reliance basis, but the Hilltoppers aren’t producing that at the rate assumed given their style of play. Ranks No. 71 in dropback success rate, but No. 79 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per cfb charts at collegefootballinsiders.comquickly implies that Western Kentucky is less likely to find explosive play than the average team, something that will be costly against a defense focused on harassing a passing game on a moment-to-moment basis.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston same game (SGP)

Sam Houston moneyline

Below 55.5

Jay Ducker any time touchdown

Taking the Under 55.5 definitely correlates with Sam Houston’s moneyline. If Western Kentucky is unable to produce explosive play, the offense should stagnate. That should push us towards this Under.

Consideration was given to taking a Western Kentucky Team Total Under 24.5 instead, but that disproportionately reduced the payout of this parlay in the same game.

Bearkats running back Jay Ducker’s addition of a touchdown is based entirely on the fact that he has scored five times in the last three games, highlighted by three scores in what was perhaps Sam Houston’s biggest game of the season yet against Texas State, two weeks ago. If that’s what’s asked of Ducker when the moment counts, then something similar should be expected in a game that could elevate the Bearkats to a true Conference USA contender.

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Odds

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston live odds

Opening odds Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston

• Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston spread: Sam Houston -2.5
• Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston moneyline: Western Kentucky +125, Sam Houston -150
• Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston over/under: 55.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston spread and over/under analysis

• The earliest legit lines of the week started with Sam Houston as a 2-point favorite, a number that quickly climbed to -2.5 and flirted with -3 on Sunday and Monday before settling at -2.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
• Both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are 5-1 against the spread this season, with each of their ATS losses coming against a Power Four opponent.
• The total opened at 54.5 on Sunday and quickly rose to 55 on most books, with some opening at 55.5. On Tuesday it rose to 56 across most of the line.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston betting trend to know

In its last nine games, Sam Houston has gone 9-1 against the spread, including a 28-23 loss to Western Kentucky last November, where the Bearkats were 10-point underdogs at the time. Find more college football betting odds for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston.

Game information Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston latest injuries

Western Kentucky Weather vs. Sam Houston

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