The Atlanta Falcons had a great five-game stretch last week, beating their two closest competitors in the NFC South back to back in front of their home fans.

The Falcons are now 3-2 and top of the division thanks to the tiebreakers, all of which they currently control. A thrilling win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in prime time also gave them real respect on the national stage. The atmosphere in the state of Georgia is off the charts as the fan base checks in.

Next up, Atlanta gets the lowly 1-4 Carolina Panthers, who may once again compete for the top overall pick in the draft. The Panthers are coming off a drubbing at the hands of the Chicago Bears.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Panthers in Week 6, and look at the scenario if they lose.

If the Falcons win

They will have completed the early NFC South gauntlet unscathed, having defeated the Saints, Buccaneers and Panthers all in consecutive weeks. As such, they guarantee a split in the division at worst this season.

They move to 4-2 overall, 3-0 in the NFC South and 4-0 in the NFC as a whole. Every tiebreaker you can think of is now going Atlanta’s way, and this will be their first 4-2 start in a season since that magical 2016 campaign.

Whatever happens, the Falcons will consolidate first place in the division, but the most enticing part is that either the Buccaneers or Saints, who play each other this weekend, will lose pace with them. Either Tampa will drop to .500 and the Birds will take sole possession of the top spot, or New Orleans will fall two full games behind both the Falcons and Bucs.

More than anything, the Falcons will have to overcome another hurdle to fully earn the trust of their fan base. No road division game is easy, but on paper the Panthers are a bad football team: they are 1-4 and have by far the worst point differential in the league (-82, with the team closest is at -53). Atlanta has a chance to show that they can indeed take care of business against inferior opponents instead of downplaying their competition like so many Falcons teams in recent years.

Avoiding disappointment in these types of trap games will go a long way toward proving that this team is real, just as beating the good teams will do the same.

If the Falcons lose

They will fall to .500 at 3-3 and will get their first blemish in both the division and the conference. This is only their second road game in the first six weeks and they will have a split record at home (2-2) and away (1-1) – perfect in the middle at about 1/3rd of the way through the season.

The NFC South will either turn into a clustered bloodbath with three 3-3 teams and a 2-4 team if New Orleans wins this weekend, or Tampa Bay will regain the first-place advantage they enjoyed last Thursday night at 4-2, with Atlanta being one game behind them and one game ahead of the Saints and Panthers.

For the fifth straight season, the Falcons won’t be able to beat Carolina, something they had done three times in Dan Quinn’s last four full seasons as the Falcons’ head coach before a string of four straight years of splits between 2020 -2023.

The momentum and good atmosphere this team has built up so far in the season will completely deflate like a balloon. I wouldn’t blame those in this fanbase who will inevitably have that “here we go again” mentality regarding this franchise, which will once again struggle to beat the opposition.

Atlanta will enter another tough stretch of the schedule after this weekend, with games against the Cowboys and Seahawks and road rematches against the Saints and Buccaneers in the next month. Starting that process at 3-3 is much more difficult than starting at 4-2.