Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

Carmen Vitali

NFC North reporter

Our NFL journalists generally agreed that the kings of the NFL are in the North.

Which North is the question.

When predicting the NFL’s best division for 2024, we were almost evenly split between the AFC North, a long-standing division power, and the resurgent NFC North. The NFC North, formerly the black and blue division, has a ton of young, physical talent that looks ready to compete now and in the future. The AFC North is the establishment that has been accustomed to that physical brand of football, both in the recent past and still is.

Does the NFC North have a case to topple the current regime? Let’s discuss it all the old-fashioned way. Carmen Vitali and Greg Auman will do the honors.

RELATED: NFL Division Supremacy: Ranking All 8 for the 2024 Season

The case for the NFC North

Let’s be clear that we’re splitting hairs in this debate between the two Northern divisions. Both the AFC North and NFC North will be extremely tough (and extremely fun) divisions to watch this season and beyond.

But for the sake of argument, let’s split hairs a bit.

While the NFC North isn’t quite as established as a powerhouse division yet, I think if we were to look into a crystal ball we’ll see that for many years to come. The Green Bay Packers are already there, seamlessly transitioning to another franchise quarterback, this time helping the league’s youngest team to the playoffs in his first year as a starter. The Packers have so much faith in Jordan Love that they’ve made him the highest-paid player in the league, tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

The other 2023 playoff team in the division was the Detroit Lions, who have suddenly become the team to beat after reaching the NFC title game. They too have a young but productive core, with key players like Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch under team control until at least 2026. They have also signed veteran players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell to lucrative long-term deals. The Lions are planning on being a nuisance for a while.

Not to be outdone, enter the Chicago Bears. It’s only been two preseason games with Caleb Williams, but there’s optimism that he is indeed the Prince That Was Promised. Combined with the fact that he has every offensive weapon a starting quarterback could ever dream of and a defense that could be a top-five unit in the league with him, the Bears could be competitive and make a playoff push as early as this season. General manager Ryan Poles has spent three years setting this roster up for continued success.

NFL players are under the MOST pressure this year

Then there’s the Minnesota Vikings, who seem to want to punish the football gods but refuse to die. Even with the injury to first-round pick JJ McCarthy, they have Sam Darnold under a phenomenal coaching staff that includes several former quarterbacks. They also have the talent on offense — especially if they can get tight end TJ Hockenson back from injury. The defense should limit the number of points scored against them, so that even if the Vikings aren’t in the playoff picture this year, they won’t be an easy out.

That’s the bottom line for me. Is the supposed fourth-place team in the NFC North (the Vikings) better than the supposed fourth-place team in the AFC North (the Steelers)? I think so. Minnesota has the best wide receiver in the league and one of the most creative defensive playcallers, armed with two potential double-digit sack artists. It all comes under the banner of Kevin O’Connell, who continues to be underrated for his efforts. I would take Minnesota’s roster over Pittsburgh’s pretty quickly, and that gives the NFC North the edge as king in my book. — Carmen Vitali

The case for the AFC North

The best division in the NFL in 2024? It’ll be the AFC North, once again.

Simple, indisputable facts here: All four teams in the AFC North — the Ravens, Browns, Steelers and Bengals — finished with winning records last season, giving the division the best record in football at 43-25. The NFC North, by comparison, was barely above .500 at 35-33, a full eight games behind.

The Ravens reached the AFC Championship Game, the third straight year an AFC North team has done so. While no one questions the Chiefs’ status as the NFL’s dominant team during that span, their division lacks any significant depth relative to the reigning champions.

But the AFC North? Last year’s success came with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow playing just 10 games and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson playing just six. Both are healthy for 2024, and that’s raised expectations enough for the Bengals that they finished fourth in their division but are now tied for the sixth-best Super Bowl prospect in the league. Pittsburgh, which won 10 games with little help at quarterback, now has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who started a combined 28 games last year, instead of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, who may not start at all in 2024.

The Las Vegas bookmakers still think the AFC North is the best division in the NFL. Add up the over/unders for the 2024 win totals, and the four AFC North teams are projected to win 38 games (again, that’s conservatively five fewer than last year), two more than the next-best NFC North.

The latest NFL rankings from FOX Sports also have the AFC North as the division to beat. Add up the rankings for each team, and the AFC North — with three teams in the top 10 — has the lowest total, four spots above the NFC North and 11 spots above everyone else.

What does the JJ McCarthy injury, which will keep him out for the season, mean for the Vikings?

I can see why there’s excitement about the NFC North, with Chicago’s Caleb Williams as the No. 1 overall pick and a reason for optimism in Chicago, and Green Bay’s Jordan Love still rising as he enters his second year as an NFL starter. Detroit is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but Minnesota is likely taking a step back from Kirk Cousins ​​to Sam Darnold, who steps in after JJ McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury. It’s hard to argue that they have four teams with a shot at the playoffs like you can with their AFC North counterparts.

When debating the merits of the two Northern divisions, we can also use an old hockey stat: plus-minus. Based on total point differentials in 2023, it’s not even close: AFC North teams outscored their opponents by 199 points, and no other division is better than plus-57, with the NFC North sitting at plus-52. The NFC’s top division will close the gap this coming season, but will it be 147 points better?

If anyone can stop the Chiefs from reaching another Super Bowl, it’s the AFC North, whether it’s Baltimore, which lost by seven points in last year’s AFC Championship Game in Baltimore, or Cincinnati, which was tied with the Chiefs for a Super Bowl spot until the final three seconds two years ago and then eliminated them the year before that. The Ravens have the league’s reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson, and from start to finish, no division in football produces dangerous, playoff-caliber teams like the AFC North will again this season. —Greg Auman

Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Greg is in his 10th season of full-time NFL coverage after stints at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen has had previous stops at The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Book Hunters. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, adding the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat parade participant) to her resume. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

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