CLEVELAND – If you want to believe Carlos Rodon will throw a gem in a big spot for the Yankees, there is statistical support.

If you want to believe that Rodon will be attacked by the Guardians on Saturday, there is statistical support for that argument too.

So, which Rodon will appear for Game 5 of the ALCS?

The one with a deep track record of great pitching at Progressive Field?

Or the one who wasn’t effective on the road this season?

Manager Aaron Boone expects an ace-like performance similar to what Rodon showed at home in Game 1.

“I feel good about where he is and what he’s going to bring,” Boone said Friday night before the Yankees’ thrilling 8-6 victory over the Guardians in Game 4.

Mostly as a member of the rival White Sox, Rodon pitched to a 3.08 ERA in 76 innings over 13 career games in Cleveland.

One key to his success against the Guardians – regardless of location – is that Jose Ramirez was held to a .217 average with five extra base hits (zero home runs) and five RBIs in 46 at-bats.

“It’s just one of those things where sometimes as a player you get to certain spots and throw well,” Rodon said. “I’m sure we can find somewhere out of 30 ballparks that I don’t play well in. And luckily I can pitch well here because (Saturday) is going to be a pretty big game.”

Rodon did not pitch at Progressive Field during the regular season. If he did, his home road split might not be as drastic as a 3.11 ERA at Yankee Stadium and a 4.69 ERA away from his home field.

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He had a similar number of home runs, walks and strikeouts allowed, but just gave up a lot more hits on the road.

“I didn’t pay much attention to it,” Rodon said. “I don’t know. I can’t tell you why.”

Rodon thinks, “What have you done for me lately?” is the most important factor. And he allowed just a solo home run while striking out nine and walking none to open the ALCS.

“I was aware of where I was emotionally,” Rodon said. “And then I think in terms of focus… I’m always very focused on the task at hand when I’m on the mound, but I’ve kept it pretty simple. I thought I was staying in and just checking out what was in front of me. And everything behind me and things I had no control over, I just wiped away.

The Yankees have a handful of young players set to make their playoff debuts in 2024, but Boone thinks a 31-year-old lefty with previous postseason experience could be the one who has benefited from scratching his itch.

Rodon lost command in the fourth inning of his ALDS start.

“Obviously he’s been in the league a long time, had a lot of success and been through a lot with us. He struggled last year and bounced back the same way he did this year,” Boone said. “I think like everyone else, I feel like he really learned a lot from the experience of pitching in the postseason with the Yankees.”