Final match 1 of round one tonight

Columbus hosts the Red Bulls at 6:45 PM ET (Apple TV – Free) and Real Salt Lake welcomes Minnesota United at 8:50 PM ET (Apple TV – Free). Both matches can also be watched on FS1 and FS2 (Spanish) in the US, as well as on TSN and RDS in Canada.

Nashville and Toronto announce end-of-year promotions

Nashville SC and Toronto FC have announced their year-end rosters. View every decision here.

Cincy strangled NYCFC and Seattle snuck past Houston on penalties. Let’s talk it out.

It only ended 1-0, but it could have been much, much worse for NYCFC. Cincy outpaced them from 3.7 xG to 0.3 xG and was in complete control from start to finish. NYCFC’s only saving grace here is that they get to return home for Game 2. They had the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference this season.

But late in this they have not done themselves any favours. Tayvon Gray received a straight red card in stoppage time and will miss Game 2. It’s been a long road back in this series for NYCFC. That couldn’t have gone better for Cincy.

Good. I wrote the following yesterday:

“Who will score in this series? It doesn’t feel like either team has a player in the final third who is destined to be a series changer. So it really comes down to which approach is more effective per committee.

‘If there are any targets in this case at all. You could tell me this is going to end with three separate 0-0 draws and I wouldn’t even blink.”

One down, two to go. Seattle couldn’t even find the net after Coco Carrasquilla’s red card. That card could play a big role in Game 2, but last night it likely only contributed to an already predetermined outcome. Still, it seems likely that Houston will be without its best player in the crucial Game 2 after falling in penalties.

But then again… probably still a 0-0, right?

Two Round One matches for you tonight. Here you can read what you should pay attention to.

We have no secrets here at The Daily Kickoff. Columbus is a heavy favorite tonight. You don’t even have to look further than these teams’ last games to understand why. A heavily substituted Crew side bulldozed the Red Bulls for 77 minutes, conceding two late goals, then went ahead and still won in stoppage time. A New York team playing for a crucial position in the Eastern Conference couldn’t even handle the Crew B team.

RBNY hasn’t really hung out with anyone in a while. Every foot forward has found a rake to lift and every rake has found a face to smite. Since midseason, they have recorded the lowest points per game of any playoff team at 1.06 points per game. Since the Leagues Cup, only Chicago is worse than New York’s 0.67 points per game.

To be fair, their underlying numbers have remained much better over both periods, but at some point you have to admit that there is at least a reason why nothing is clicking for this group. They are idiosyncratic, even with Emil Forsberg back in the lineup. Whatever advantage they need to find to turn this tide has been missing for months.

Going up against the Crew isn’t a time when teams normally find that advantage. Columbus is looking for their second straight MLS Cup title and their fourth straight tournament final. The Red Bulls will have to put together something remarkable quickly to be the team that keeps Columbus from their final destination.

Minnesota United has been a different team since the summer period. The arrival of DP forward Kelvin Yeboah and DP midfielder Joaquín Pereyra immediately changed this team. From June 1 until the start of the Leagues Cup, Minnesota averaged 0.73 points per game. Since then, the Loons have averaged 2.11 points per game, the third-best mark in the league.

It’s no coincidence that Yeboah made his first MLS start in Minnesota’s first game back from the Leagues Cup. He has scored seven times since first taking the field and is averaging 0.89 goals per 90. It’s still early, but that’s a better figure than Cucho Hernández and Christian Benteke posted this year.

Meanwhile, RSL hasn’t been as successful with their summer additions. Pre-Leagues Cup (and before the departure of star winger Andrés Gómez) RSL averaged 1.76 points per game over 25 games. Since then, they’ve put up a respectable but not-so-impressive 1.67 points per game over nine games. Their underlying numbers have also taken a hit.

Part of that is due to the way Chicho Arango’s season was pushed off a cliff. He hasn’t scored since July 6. Somehow he still finished with 17 goals on the season. You may have forgotten, but we were on a timeline where it looked like he would challenge Carlos Vela’s goalscoring record for a while. The other big part of that is Gómez’s left and new DP midfielder Diogo Gonçalves and new U22 winger Dominik Marczuk have not immediately picked up the slack. Combined, they have three goals and two assists in 11 starts. Not bad. But no comparable replacement for what Gómez offered.

If they are both outdone by Yeboah and Pereyra in this film, RSL could be in big trouble.

Good luck there. Put your face on the line.