Traveling northwest, Rafael passed about 30 miles (50 km) west of Havana, where winds of 45 mph (71 km/h) and gusts up to 70 mph (114 km/h) were measured at 3:50 p.m. EST. Rafael’s powerful winds caused major disruptions to the Cuban power grid, leading to an island-wide power outage just days after the Cuban power grid failed completely between October 18 and 22.

Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status on Wednesday gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 153 (31% above average). An average season has fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 117.

Raphael disturbed by passage over Cuba

Rafael’s two-hour passage over western Cuba before reaching the Gulf of Mexico disrupted the hurricane’s inner core, reducing the storm to a Cat 2 with winds of 107 miles per hour. Nevertheless, Rafael is one of only six November hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf (Figure 1), and one of only three Cat 2+ storms. The others were Cat 2 Hurricane Ida from 2009 and Cat 3 Hurricane Kate from 1985.

At 10 a.m. EST on Thursday, November 7, Rafael was 200 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, traveling at 9 mph west-northwest with sustained top winds of 100 mph. h) and a central pressure of 971 mb. Key West’s radar showed Rafael bringing some heavy rain showers to the coast of southwest Florida and the Florida Keys, and to parts of western Cuba. As of 10 a.m. EST Thursday, Rafael had dumped 2-5 inches of rain on the Lower Florida Keys. In Jaguey Grande, Cuba, precipitation amounts of 6.30 inches (160 mm) were reported over 24 hours. Moisture moving north ahead of Rafael brought localized rainfall amounts of up to a foot over South Carolina (see Bluesky post below).

Satellite images showed on Thursday that Rafael was less impressive than on Wednesday. No eye was prominent anymore, and the thunderstorms in the eye wall had warmer cloud tops and were not as symmetrical.

Rafael expected to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico

Steering currents for Rafael favor a mostly westward track over the next three days, keeping the core of the storm away from land areas. Rafael sits over warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) associated with the Loop Current, which extends north from the western Caribbean to the central Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane moves westward, it will encounter water that is about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) cooler. Wind shear is forecast to be a moderate 10-20 knots, but Rafael will enter an environment of increasingly drier air, which should cause significant weakening early next week.

Early next week there is significant model uncertainty on Rafael’s track. The two bold black lines in Figure 2 above show that the European model (left) predicts a west-southwest route towards Mexico, but the GFS model (right) predicts a more northerly route towards Louisiana. About half of Euro-ensemble members and almost all GFS members prefer the northern route, toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast. This more northerly track would move Rafael into a region with higher wind shear and drier air, resulting in rapid weakening, and none of the ensemble members depicted a U.S. hurricane landfall.

It is unlikely that disruptions will occur around the Leeward Islands

A tropical disturbance over the Leeward Islands was moving west at about 15 mph on Thursday and will bring heavy rains of 2 to 3 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Some members of the 6Z Thursday European and GFS model ensembles show that this disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 a.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 20% chance of development and 7 days. The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Sara.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.