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2024 was another ‘change’ election: from the Politics Desk

Vaseline November 12, 2024

Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray explains how 2024 marked the sixth ‘change’ election in a row, as voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction remains high. Plus, we explore how the Republican leadership elections in the Senate are once again becoming a MAGA proxy battle.

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2024 was another “change” election

By Mark Murray

The 2024 elections represented more than Donald Trump’s victory in the White House, Republicans gaining a majority in the Senate, and the fact that the Republican Party was in the driver’s seat to keep the House (although control of it room is still up for grabs).

They culminated in the country’s sixth consecutive “change” elections, with either the White House or at least one chamber of Congress switching party control. Just look at this history of recent presidential and midterm election cycles:

2014: Republicans win the Senate
2016: Republicans win the White House
2018: Democrats win the House
2020: Democrats win the White House and Senate
2022: Republicans win the House
2024: Republicans win the White House and Senate

In fact, you have to go back to the 2012 cycle for the last “status quo” elections, where the White House and the two chambers of Congress did not change party hands.

Presidential ping pong

There’s also this trend: control of the White House has now flipped in each of the past three presidential elections (Barack Obama to Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump).

We haven’t seen this kind of presidential party ping-pong since the 1880s and 1890s, given that the 20th century and early 21st century were defined by multiple terms of Democratic or Republican presidents.

There are two explanations for all these changes. The first is the simple arithmetic: The nation is so politically divided that all it takes is a shift of tens of thousands of votes in key states, or just a few seats in Congress, to change the balance of power.

The second – and bigger – explanation is the consistent 60% to 70% of voters over the past decade who believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to NBC News polling.

With the exception of Obama’s elections in 2008 and 2012 and Trump’s first victory in 2016, a supermajority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

Voters saw Trump as the change agent

That sentiment was evident in the 2024 election, with as many as 73% of voters saying they were angry or dissatisfied with the way things were going in the country, the NBC News Exit Poll found. Those voters broke for Trump over Kamala Harris 62% to 36%.

Furthermore, a whopping 68% of voters in the exit poll described the economy as “not that good” or “bad,” despite statistical evidence of a growing economy. Trump won those voters, 70% to 28%.

And Trump was seen as the change agent in the race. According to the exit poll, 28% of voters said that bringing “necessary change” was the candidate quality that mattered most to them (behind “has the ability to lead” and ahead of “has good judgment” and “cares about people like me’). ”).

Trump won those “change voters” by 50 points, 74% to 24%.

The question at the inauguration in January: Can his second term break the cycle of American voters wanting change?

The battle for Republican leadership in the Senate is becoming a proxy for MAGA influence under Trump

By Sahil Kapur, Matt Dixon and Julie Tsirkin

A looming battle among Senate Republicans over who to choose as their next majority leader is turning into an early test of how much power newly elected President Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement will wield in his second term.

The three-way battle to replace retiring Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky pits Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota against Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a former deputy to McConnell, and underdog candidate Sen. Rick Scott of Florida.

The battle will be a gauge of the staying power of veteran Republicans grounded in an institutional perspective on the Senate, like Thune and Cornyn, versus an emboldened pro-Trump wing that wants to destroy all vestiges of the old Republican Party if he returns. power comes.

Scott is seeking to claim this final mantle, telling NBC News in an interview Monday that he will push “the Trump agenda” if elected.

“I talk to all my colleagues and they are clear about what they want and know that we have to change. They want to be treated as equals, want to be part of a team. They know that I have a good relationship with Trump and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and that I am a businessman. And I will get the Trump agenda done,” Scott said.

MAGA influencers online have launched an online pressure campaign to sink current and former McConnell delegates — and boost Scott — ahead of a candidates forum Tuesday and an expected closed-door election Wednesday.

But it is far from clear that the campaign will succeed. The Senate is a famously insular body that is relatively aloof from populist zeal, gives its members six-year terms and generally operates on the basis of seniority. It would be unusual for Scott to pass over two colleagues who have served much longer, built deeper relationships and each paid their dues in pursuing the job.

Most importantly, the elections will take place by secret ballot. Unlike votes on legislation and appointments – as well as the vote for Speaker of the House of Representatives – votes for Senate leadership are anonymous. That means relationships will be paramount and the online pro-Trump army won’t know how its members voted.

The most striking thing is that Trump himself has exerted no influence. But he has made one public demand: The next Republican leader should support his ability to make “recess appointments” to install temporary staff without Senate confirmation.

Trump selected Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, chair of the House Republican Conference, as ambassador to the United Nations.
He also chose former Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York to oversee the Environmental Protection Agency.
Trump made the announcement with Tom Homan, the former acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement who supported his controversial ‘zero tolerance’ policy, will be his government’s ‘border czar’.
And Stephen Miller is expected to be named Trump’s deputy chief of staff for White House policy.

🗞️Today’s top stories

🗺 To realign the map: Trump has succeeded this year in creating a nearly wholesale shift to the right within the electorate in ways he couldn’t in 2016 or 2020, inflating long-held narratives in both parties about how Americans vote. Read more →
🧹 Wipe clean: NBC News projected Trump as the winner in Arizona this weekend, meaning he defeated Harris in all seven core battleground states. Read more →
💸 Final price tag: According to AdImpact, nearly $11 billion was spent on advertising during the 2024 election, a new record and a substantial increase from the $9 billion spent in 2020. Read more →
👀 Expressing complaints: Trump’s victory has raised new concerns among his critics that he may come to power seeking retribution. Read more →
⚖️ Checks and Balances: Trump’s ambitious agenda could face opposition from an institution to which he contributed much: the Supreme Court. Read more →
📈 Expectations versus reality: As a candidate, Trump promised to free consumers from high interest rates. But as president, this will likely be a slow process largely beyond his control. Read more →

For now, that all comes from the Political Bureau. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at [email protected]

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2024 was another ‘change’ election: from the Politics Desk