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    • Harris up 1 point in HarrisX/Forbes survey
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    Harris up 1 point in HarrisX/Forbes survey

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    Vice President Kamala Harris has a razor-thin one-point lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a new national HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, marking a statistical tie less than a week before Election Day — but one in ten likely voters could change their minds.

    Key facts

    Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, with 2% backing independent candidate Cornel West and 1% favoring the Green Party’s Jill Stein — including voters who were unsure but leaned toward one candidate (the data include people who voted early).

    That compares with a HarrisX/Forbes survey from a week earlier, which showed Trump with a 49%-48% lead, including leaners, but a narrower race than shortly after last month’s debate, when Harris Trump led by 52%-48%, not including third parties.

    Harris’ lead also stands at 49%-48% in the seven battleground states likely to determine the winner, compared to a 50%-46% lead for Trump a week ago.

    There’s still room for the race to shift, even if there are only a few days left: About 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters are still considering their choices, including 14% of voters in the battleground, three in ten independents, almost a quarter of voters between the ages of 18 and 34, and over a fifth of black and Hispanic voters.

    HarrisX surveyed 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters between Sunday and Tuesday, about 910 of whom were in battleground states — the margin of error was about 1.5 percentage points.

    Crucial quote

    “The race is a statistical tie and it will be a beep of an election. Trump has won in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in battleground states. Anything is possible, including Trump winning the national election and Harris breaking into the Electoral College, which is why the race remains difficult to predict from a polling perspective,” Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, told Forbes in an email.

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    Important background

    As Election Day approaches, the race between Trump and Harris is one of the closest in living memory. Harris has a 1.2-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, but Trump is narrowly favored in most battleground states — albeit by single-digit margins that could easily flip. In a race this close, turnout could be crucial as Harris leads among frequent voters while Trump has a large lead among so-called low-propensity voters. The race could also hinge on racial shifts: The HarrisX/Forbes poll found Harris with a 10-point lead among Hispanics and a 47-point margin among Black voters — far weaker numbers than President Joe Biden in 2020 — but Trump’s lead of 11 points with white voters is smaller than his 2020 advantage. Trump’s attempt to win over more Hispanic voters hit a snag on Sunday when a comedian at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash,” sparking protest caused a litany of well-known Puerto Ricans, although its impact on the race is unclear.

    What to pay attention to

    The gender gap — with Trump leading among men and Harris among women — remains a powerful force in the race. “In the final stretch, Trump should focus on women and Harris on men, with each having a 10-point lead over the other — one of the largest among demographics,” Nesho said.

    Tangent

    Registered voters are slightly more likely to have a favorable view of Harris (47%) than Trump (45%), but both candidates are viewed unfavorably by more voters (48% in Harris’s case, 51% for Trump) – a grim reflection of the polarized country. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s favorability stands at just 38%, while 57% view him unfavorably.

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