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NLCS Game 4 odds, picks, bets
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NLCS Game 4 odds, picks, bets

Throughout their storybook season, the Mets have shown plenty of resilience, and they will now have to dig deep once again in the NLCS, where they trail by two games against the Dodgers.

It’s familiar territory for the Mets, who followed their three postseason losses with wins, including a 7-3 decision after being blown out 9-0 in Game 1 of this series.

Carlos Mendoza will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound for Thursday’s crucial Game 4 (8:08 p.m., FS1). Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts counters with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Here’s a preview of the game at Citi Field with a prediction and pick.

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 Odds

Team Moneyline Run line Top/Bottom
Evaders -142 -1.5 (+130) o7 (-118)
Mets +120 +1.5 (-155) u7 (-102)
Odds via DraftKings

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 Prediction

Yamamoto bounced back with a stellar performance in Game 5 against San Diego after a horrible playoff debut in Game 1 of the NLDS.

His underlying results from those two games were quite ugly, as he allowed a .278 xBA and xFIP of 5.43. He had a K-BB% of 0.0.

Even in Yamamoto’s sharp Game 5 performance, he walked a tight line between dominant and happy, and on another night he might have allowed two home runs to Manny Machado. He was hit hard 43% of the time in that game and struck out only two batters.


Shohei Ohtani broke out with a moonshot home run on Wednesday.
Shohei Ohtani broke out with a moonshot home run on Wednesday. Getty Images

Yamamoto’s velocity was 96.7 and he threw quite well, but I’m not sure this performance means he deserves to be considered an ace again. He’s only a month away from being taken off the IL due to a rotational cuff strain.

Oddsmakers aren’t banking on a deep start from Yamamoto on Thursday, as his betting total for outs stands at 13.5 (over +105, bet365). The Dodgers bullpen is taking quite a load after throwing a bullpen game in Game 2 and getting just 12 outs from ace Walker Buehler on Wednesday.

If Yamamoto fails to get a deep start, Roberts could be left with some tough center-help choices before turning on his powerful arms.

The Mets have landed some elite pitchers at key times this postseason. They have a wRC+ of 100 and an OPS of .698 during their magical playoff run.

Quintana was brilliant in his two postseason starts. Against the Brewers and Phillies, he allowed zero earned runs over 12 innings of work. He had an xFIP of 3.49 in those matchups with a K-BB% of 18.2.

Quintana will look to generate soft contact by working around the edges of the zone and forcing hitters to chase outside of it. The Dodgers have been much less effective against left-handers, but have also chased the third-lowest level this season.


Carlos Mendoza won't be making many lineup changes ahead of Game 4.
Carlos Mendoza won’t be making many lineup changes ahead of Game 4. Getty Images

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 pick

Thursday’s conditions at Citi Field should help both starters, but could potentially help a contact pitcher like Quintana more, as the first pitch calls for temperatures of 52 degrees and the wind blows in from left centerfield.


Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting


Quintana has been very effective this postseason and the Mets have proven they have a feel for these types of spots.

At +110 or better, I see value in backing the Mets to steal a win and even the series at home.

Pick: Mets (+120, bet365)


Why trust New York Post betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but has also risen 180 units himself with verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick at X @nickm_hockey.