LONDON — Russia increased the intensity of its long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities by about 44% in the week after President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, the ABC News analysis shows.

The scale and complexity of drone attacks by both Russia and Ukraine have steadily increased since the start of the full-scale war in February 2022. About 4,500 UAVs have crossed the shared border in both directions in the past five weeks.

But Trump’s election victory – confirmed in the early hours of November 6 – corresponded with an increase in Moscow’s use of Iranian-made Shahed attack drones to bomb Ukrainian targets across the country.

In the week since Trump’s victory, Russia launched 641 attack drones in Ukraine, according to daily figures published by the Ukrainian Air Force – an average of more than 91 UAVs per day.

The Ukrainian Air Force recorded 2,286 aircraft launched on its territory in the period from October 1 to November 5, with a daily average of less than 64 UAVs.

The daily number of Russian drones exceeded 100 on three of the seven days since the US presidential election, while that threshold was reached only five times in the five weeks before that. The record number of 145 drones was achieved on November 10.

Russia often launches ballistic missiles in addition to its drone bombings, but much less. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 88 rockets were fired into the country between October 1 and November 5, and 12 in the week after the elections. That meant a daily average of just over two Russian missiles in the period before the election and just under two after.

The number of Ukrainian drone attacks has been stable since the beginning of October, according to figures published by the Russian Defense Ministry in real time on its Telegram channels.

Moscow reported that 1,277 aircraft were shot down between October 1 and November 5, an average of just over 35 UAVs per day. In the week after the election, Russian air defenses downed 243 drones, the ministry said, for a daily average of just under 35 UAVs.

ABC News cannot independently verify the figures from either Defense Department. The publicly available totals do not include short-range or reconnaissance drones used in frontline areas. Both Russia and Ukraine may have reasons for inflating the numbers, and wartime conditions may make details difficult to confirm.

Nevertheless, the general trend is towards larger and more regular drone barrages.

“In the coming months, until January 20, we expect a significantly increasing number of launches towards Ukraine,” Ivan Stupak, a former officer in Ukraine’s security service, told ABC News.

Stupak said the number of Russian drone attacks has steadily increased in recent months. There were 818 launches in August, 1,410 on September and 2,072 on October, he said. Moscow’s intention, Stupak suggested, is to do as much damage to Ukraine as possible before the change in the US administration.

The rising number of long-range Russian attacks is accompanied by the increased intensity of ground attacks, with heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, in Russia’s western Kursk region – parts of which Kiev’s forces have occupied since August – and with Ukrainian commanders bracing for an expected offensive in the southern Zaporizhia region.

Both sides have two months to maneuver before Trump returns to the White House, after promising during the campaign to end the war “within 24 hours” by forcing Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table.

Russia is raising the bar “because they want to put Ukraine in the most difficult situation before Trump is inaugurated,” Oleg Ignatov – senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank – told ABC News. “It is good that Russia is as strong as possible,” he added, although he noted that “events on the ground have their own logic” that goes beyond the purely political.

Ukraine will want to continue its own long-range strikes, using its rapidly developing and far-reaching drone arsenal. “Ukraine will continue to carry out these types of attacks as long as it is possible,” Stupak said. “First of all, Ukraine is interested in destroying huge ammunition depots, oil refineries and facilities.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is seeing “positive signs” after Trump’s victory, although it is unclear “to what extent Trump will adhere to the statements made during his campaign.”

Yet President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that any peace talks must be based on the “new territorial reality” of partial Russian occupation and has claimed full sovereignty over four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – as well as continued control over the regions. Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

The Kremlin has also indicated that it will not begin negotiations with Ukraine to end the war until Ukrainian troops are removed from Kursk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky laid out a five-point plan for victory in October, which included demands for full NATO membership and more Western long-range weapons – plus permission to use them on Russian territory – as key deterrent measures.

Zelensky’s victory plan also included three “secret annexes” that were presented to foreign leaders but not made public.

Patrick Reevell and Natalia Popova of ABC News contributed to this report.