St. John’s is 3-0 this year with three wins by more than 20 points.

Of course, the Johnnies haven’t played anyone, overwhelming Fordham, Quinnipiac and Wagner.

New Mexico will be the toughest test yet for Rick Pitino and Co.

The Lobos already have a KenPom top-25 victory after beating UCLA last Friday in Las Vegas.

Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph make a formidable inside-out duo.

These are two similar teams, and I think the Lobos have a fighting chance to keep it close for 40 minutes.

New Mexico vs. St. John’s odds

New Mexico vs. St. John’s prediction

(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

Both teams run quick, transition-dependent offenses around their backcourt. The Lobos and Johnnies will put the ball in the hands of their guards and let them run across the open field for 40 minutes.

Both teams have talented frontcourts, but limited frontcourts. They are also limited in the shooting and range departments, often in the mid-range.

These are two above-average transition defenses, so while I expect a lot of transition attempts, both could have trouble scoring efficiently.

But there are a few matchup wrinkles that favor the Lobos.

In theory, Coach Pitino’s matchup zone defense should neutralize ball screen plays.

But in practice, the Johnnies’ ball screen coverage was more than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed last season (.88) and allowed opponents to run sets well above average.

That doesn’t bode well for this match, as the Lobos run almost exclusively ball-screen sets with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil in the half court.

Plus, I’ve been impressed with New Mexico’s early-season rim pressure. The Lobos are averaging 28 field goal attempts at the rim per game (98th percentile). That will undoubtedly result in shots with higher efficiency than St. John’s mid-range attack.

The Johnnies ranked 325th nationally in rim-and-3 class last season, and their top offseason addition is former Seton Hall guard Kadary Richmond, a talented two-way player who spends too much time kicking in the middle of the floor.

I’m also not sure what the Red Storm’s offense will look like without Joel Soriano.

Sunday will be their first real test without their former star center.

He grabbed a million offensive rebounds last year and masked a roster lacking in shooting ability by creating consistent second-chance offense.

This year’s roster doesn’t have an adequate replacement, especially if they continue to play 6-foot-4 RJ Luis at the four.

That gets to a more overarching point about roster continuity.

Teams with more returning production tend to perform better than teams with less early in the season; fully formed teams outperform transfer-laden teams in November and December.

Betting on college basketball?

New Mexico ranks 66th nationally in minutes continuity (49%), while St. John’s ranks 263rd (22%).

The Johnnies rely on four transfers for significant minutes of possession.

New Mexico vs. St. John’s choice

The Lobos and Johnnies are playing very similar schemes, which makes me think the two will play a closely contested game.

But I’m willing to support New Mexico’s returning players and the ball-screen offense against St. John’s transfers and the sketchy ball-screen coverage defense.

Best bet: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)