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Tropical storm Nadine, the next storm will be Oscar
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Tropical storm Nadine, the next storm will be Oscar

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The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed early Saturday morning, and is also monitoring another system in the Caribbean that could develop into a tropical storm or depression on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nadine was located about 60 miles (90 kilometers) east of Belize City and 105 miles (170 kilometers) southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, on the Yucatan Peninsula at 8 a.m. ET on Saturday, the hurricane center said. The storm, which produced maximum sustained winds of 70 km/h, was moving west at 15 km/h, the center said.

Tropical storm warnings had been issued for Belize City and areas from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel. With widespread rain amounts of four to eight inches expected, Nadine will cause localized flash flooding in southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday afternoon, the NHC said. Isolated areas with amounts greater than 30 cm are also possible until late Tuesday.

Nadine is not a threat to the US. As the storm moves inland, it is expected to weaken and likely dissipate over southeastern Mexico early Sunday, the center said.

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Tropical Storm Nadine tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models

Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

NHC Monitoring System 94L in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another system in the Atlantic Ocean, called AL 94 or Invest 94L, which is producing showers and thunderstorms less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The system is moving westward at a speed of 10 to 15 mph and is expected to pass north of Hispaniola today and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and far eastern Cuba on Sunday. Forecasters say the system is “becoming better organized.” and is expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Saturday and tropical storm warnings will likely be issued for those islands, as well as southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The chance of formation over the next seven days is estimated at 90%, the center said Saturday.

The system is expected to strengthen until it passes Hispaniola and Cuba later this weekend and then will likely dissipate or “continue as a poorly organized tropical rain storm in the western Caribbean,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said in a forecast Saturday .

Invest 94L tracker

Invest in 94 liter spaghetti models

Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

There are about six weeks remaining in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30. There have been fourteen named storms so far this season. The next storm to form will be named Oscar.

After about five weeks of relative calm, the 2024 season – especially with the arrival of Helene and Milton – became an above-average hurricane season, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. He noted that the 14th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean typically forms on Nov. 19 in a post on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.

There is a 50% chance of tropical development through Oct. 28, Colorado State University meteorologists said in their recent two-week forecast. “There are indications of possible additional developments in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are quite weak,” CSU forecasters said.

Atlantic storm tracker

Contributing: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Doyle Rice of the USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & microphone snider.

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