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    • Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane
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    Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane

    Vaseline Posted on

    SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico this week.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that Tropical Depression 18 produced winds exceeding the strength of tropical storms. Satellite images also show that the structure of this system is becoming increasingly organized. Based on this, TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Rafael.

    Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean
    Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean(WLOX)
    Monday afternoon forecast track for Rafael
    Monday afternoon forecast track for Rafael(WLOX)

    It is expected that environmental conditions will be favorable enough for Rafael to gain strength in the Caribbean. The forecast shows it could reach Category 2 strength within a few days as it crosses western Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. If it tries to move into the northern Gulf, it will likely weaken back to a tropical storm.

    WHAT WILL THE STEERING PATTERN BE?

    Where this possible system goes once it reaches the Gulf will ultimately depend on the strength of a high-pressure system over the southeastern U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. A stronger high pressure area would keep Rafael further west. A weaker high pressure area could send Rafael into the northern or northeastern Gulf.

    WHAT FACTORS COULD WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM?

    What works in Rafael’s favor? Sea temperature and low wind shear over the southern Gulf. What works against Rafael? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deep warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

    Sea surface temperatures as of Monday afternoon.
    Sea surface temperatures as of Monday afternoon.(WLOX)
    Dry air could cause Rafael to weaken in the Gulf
    Dry air could cause Rafael to weaken in the Gulf(WLOX)
    Strong wind shear along the northern Gulf could weaken Rafael by the end of the week.
    Strong wind shear along the northern Gulf could weaken Rafael by the end of the week.(WLOX)

    WHAT CAN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI EXPECT?

    Because Rafael was only recently established, it may take some time for the models to become more accurate with the specific details such as the track and intensity of this system.

    For the time being, our local weather forecasts assume a slightly higher chance of rain around Friday and Saturday, which can be associated with the tropical weather. And our weather during those days can be on the breezy side, depending on how close Rafael gets to us.

    If TD Eighteen will actually impact the weather in Coastal Mississippi, it would be around Friday...
    If TD Eighteen will actually impact the weather in Coastal Mississippi, it would be around Friday or Saturday of this week. For now, however, there is uncertainty in the forecasts for the end of the week. So it’s not yet clear whether we’ll see any of this or not.

    In the meantime, it’s a good idea to re-examine the weather forecasts as details are likely to become clearer in the coming days.

    This is a good reminder that hurricane season doesn’t officially end until November 30th.

    By the way, since 1850, there have only been three hurricanes that have made landfall in the US in the month of November.

    November Hurricane has been making landfall since 1850
    November Hurricane has been making landfall since 1850(WLOX)

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    Copyright 2024 WLOX. All rights reserved.

    Vaseline
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