At a time when we are all inundated with conflicting polls and statistical tapes, Donald Trump’s campaign is extremely confident.

The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news of late deciders taking the plunge by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her ‘SNL’ appearance doesn’t change that; Nor does Trump say that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from water, a major public health advance, “sounds good to me.”

Most media people, both publicly and privately, believe Trump will win even as anti-Trumpers beg their followers to vote for the VP — like MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly out Harris to support.

The climax of the campaign seems to be built around a yawning gender gap: Kamala is doing much better among women and Trump much better among men.

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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photo finish on Election Day — although morale is apparently much higher in one camp than the other. (AP)

The Trump camp’s position is that registration numbers favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.

Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% lead, and that has now shrunk to a three-point lead.

Moreover, only 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.

Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, appearing on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much Republican and much more male than last time.

Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she is still struggling to win over some black men.

In Wisconsin, Trump World’s view is that in-person voting (which leans in favor of the former president) outweighs mail-in ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength lies among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris needs to do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.

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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a mess, remains a mystery because it doesn’t keep party registration. So the ball game there could depend on how well Harris does in Detroit.

The Trump camp sees similar gains in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, where public opinion polls are close but would be a taller challenge for a Harris victory. In reality, the elections are turning against the three Blue Wall states.

Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, November 3. The Trump campaign appears confident of a victory based on early in-person votes significantly exceeding mail-in ballots — which skew heavily Democratic. areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)

In one major state after another, local Black leaders say they’re concerned about warning signs in their communities:

Politico: “The city of Milwaukee trails the rest of the state by about 7 percent, both in the number of returns and in total registered attendance. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats say privately, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to sweep Wisconsin’s rural counties.”

Capital B, Atlanta: Black voter turnout in Georgia “has dropped from over 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent… That’s the bad news for Harris…

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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia typically need to reach 30 percent black turnout.”

Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, black voters had cast 207,000 fewer votes compared to four years ago — a drop of nearly 40 percent.”

“I’m concerned about the turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after speaking during a church service at the Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons told ABC he is “concerned about the turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A brighter picture is offered by this Politico piece, which states that public opinion polls appear to be underestimating Harris’ support.

The story says that “shy Trump voters” — who don’t want to tell pollsters who they support — will be a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.

Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are being missed in the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those who voted for Haley in the 2016 primary supported Trump, down to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential candidate has nearly tripled, from just 13 percent who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent who said they would vote for Kamala Harris.”

To which I say: who the hell knows?

We’re now at the point before tomorrow’s election where pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And – here comes the cliché – it all depends on the turnout. Despite raising $1 billion, her candidacy will decline if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home.

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The scenarios favored by the Trump team rely largely on party registration, rather than on polls that have missed their mark over the past two cycles.

That explains why the former president is more confident even when he asks his advisers if they really believe he will win.