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It’s the last day before Vice President Kamala Harris takes on Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

With almost 75 million votes already cast, polling stations will close at the end of Tuesday, November 5, and votes will be counted to determine the next president.

The latest national polls show that the two candidates are still neck-and-neck; some with a small Harris lead, and others with a small Trump lead.

A surprise result in Iowa suggests Harris could have a chance to flip the Trump-favorite state, while the latest swing state polls show mixed results.

Nearly 100 electoral votes are too close; So how will Harris and Trump fare tomorrow?

The latest average of national polls, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump. On average, Harris was slightly ahead of Trump, but this gap has closed significantly in the past month. As a result, Tuesday’s results will likely be very tight and difficult to predict in advance.

An unexpected new poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom in Iowa suggests Harris leads Trump in the state, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Trump has done well in Iowa during both of his campaigns, and this would be a surprising loss. Iowa, which was considered a likely Republican victory, has six electoral college votes.

Responding to the poll, Trump lashed out at a rally on Sunday, calling it “oppression.” “They are oppressing, and it should actually be illegal,” he emphasized.

It should be noted that the three-point lead is just within the poll’s margin of error.

Swing states

The latest polls are out in the swing states The New York Times/Siena College shows a mixed bag.

In five states, the gaps between the two candidates are less than two points among likely voters, with no predictable victory at this late stage.

In Nevada, Harris has a three-point lead, just within the margin of error.

Meanwhile, Trump has opened up a four-point lead in Arizona, outside the margin of error.

The Grand Canyon State has voted Republican in every election this century except 2020, when Biden won by just 0.3 percent.

While it’s not unexpected that the state could turn red again, Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is performing poorly in the polls by comparison.

Between the seven battleground states, 93 electoral college votes are on the table.

The Independent’s analysis of the Electoral College confirms that neither candidate can reach the 270-vote threshold without the swing states.

Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral college votes, has been a major focus for both Trump and Harris’ campaigns in this election. The candidates have made multiple stops there each month, and billionaire Elon Musk’s questionable giveaway was intended to mobilize Pennsylvania voters.

Pennsylvania switched to Trump in 2016, but President Biden regained his hometown in 2020. Both wins were by just a few percentage points, meaning all eyes are on the state this year.

National impasse

Opinion polls released last week show mixed results: in some cases Harris is ahead, in others Trump is in the lead, and in some there is a tie.

However, no poll shows margins beyond a few points, beyond the margin of error, meaning the candidates are at an effective deadlock.

This could spell bad news for Democrats, who have won the popular vote in the last eight elections (with the exception of 2004, when George W. Bush was re-elected).

Because the Republican Party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College, such close national numbers could worry the Harris campaign.

Demographics

Unlike previous polls, which showed a double-digit lead for Harris among younger generations, a HarrisX poll from late October suggests that young voters are split between both candidates.

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Women and Americans from non-white backgrounds show the strongest support for Harris, while white and male voters make up Trump’s core base.

The gender gap between the two candidates, with more men supporting Trump and women supporting Harris, does not seem that drastic in this poll.

Black voters

Despite little to no movement in the polls overall, one key group has changed in the past month: black men under 50.

A new poll from the NAACP found that black men have strengthened their support for Harris after an earlier poll showed nearly three in 10 would vote for Trump.

According to the poll of 1,000 black voters, support for Harris among men under 50 has risen from 51 percent last month to 59 percent now.

Support for Trump fell from 27 percent to 21 percent over the same period.

While there are some suggestions that black men are leaning toward Trump, this does not appear to be the case on a large scale; and furthermore, according to Pew Research, this group represents only 6 to 7 percent of eligible voters.

However, the NAACP poll also shows that 73 percent of all black voters support Harris; a far cry from the 90 percent who supported Biden in 2020, and 93 percent for Obama in 2008.

This is up 10 percent from the same NAACP poll last month, but represents some hesitation among a key demographic for Democrats.

Important issues for swing voters

The economy has consistently topped the list of most important issues for voters in this election.

The Washington Post a poll of swing state voters also found that health care and threats to democracy topped the list of factors in determining the next president.

Although Trump has advocated for an overhaul of Obamacare, with failed attempts during his presidency, he failed to outline an alternative health care policy during the presidential debate in September.

Immigration plays a major role as a deciding factor in this election, and as an exclusive poll for it The independent shows that the candidates’ immigration policies are of great importance to Latino voters.

Interestingly enough, climate change ranks lowest on swing state voters’ priority list this year.

Climate change has barely been on the agenda in this election, with Harris and Walz largely silent on the issue, and Trump-Vance actively engaging in climate denial.

With the recent devastating hurricanes, climate change once again came to the fore; although Trump incorrectly stated in an October 1 speech that “the planet has actually gotten a little cooler lately.”

Red states

Last month’s Emerson College polls confirm Trump is leading in the red states of Texas and Florida.

Trump’s leads of seven and eight points, respectively, are weaker than predicted earlier this year; Still, the poll shows that women support Trump (49 percent) more than Harris (47 percent) in Florida, a success for the Republican campaign that has drained women’s votes across the country.

While it seems highly likely that both states will remain red, the Senate races are another question.

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In Texas, where former presidential candidate Ted Cruz is defending his Senate seat, Democrat Colin Allred is trailing by just one point, setting up a virtual tiebreaker.

This has been a concern for the Republican Party, according to an internal memo discussed below.

Independent voters in Texas prefer Allred (47 percent) over Cruz (42 percent). In the presidential race, they are leaning more toward Trump than Harris, by a two-point margin.

In Florida, incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott has just a four-point lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, with 8 percent of voters still undecided.

GOP troubles in the Senate race

Republicans are now concerned about the Senate elections, an internal poll shows obtained by Politics.

The memo shows that, according to Republicans’ own polls, their candidates are trailing Democrats in seven of nine key Senate seats, data largely confirmed by public polls. Those seats are in Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“We still have that a lot of work what we must do to maximize our gains in these crucial Senate elections (…) We must do that too guard our flanks,” writes the memo’s author, Steven Law, head of the Senate Leadership Fund.

The memo also warns that strongholds like Nebraska and Texas could be at risk from independent and Democratic candidates.

“We’re putting everything we have into this fight – so we don’t have to look back with regret,” the memo ends.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist According to the poll, Harris has a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent, and Trump with 44 percent. The poll shows Harris with a wide margin of 25 points among young voters aged 29 and under.

However, according to the same poll, younger generations are also the least committed to voting: 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed say they “may” vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure. .

This equates to 16 percent who are unsure or not voting, higher than any other age group, and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This is compared to 77 percent of 30 to 44 year olds, 85 percent of 45 to 64 year olds and 94 percent of those over 65.

While the numbers may seem bleak and represent some hesitancy among younger voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist a poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that almost a third of young people (27 percent) were unwilling to vote, with 10 percent “may” vote and 17 percent “definitely/probably” not likely to vote .